Fiscal Deficit

Meaning

Fiscal deficit arises when the Government’s total expenditure surpasses the revenue it generates. In other words, it is the difference between the total receipts (excluding borrowing) and total expenditure. It is expressed as a percentage of GDP. India’s fiscal deficit is currently estimated at 6 per cent of GDP for 2008-09.

How it happens

Fiscal deficit for the government arises just the way it does for you. The government needs money to meet its expenses — which can be revenue and capital expenses.

Revenue expenses are the day-to-day expenses — salaries payable to the government employees and armed forces, the expenses incurred in running various government departments, and so on — while capital expenses include what is incurred for creating assets and improving infrastructure.

In 2008-09, the major items of expense which overshot budget estimates were the subsidy bill (the government foots a subsidy on food and fertilisers distributed at a concessional rate).

The key source of revenue for the government is the taxes it collects — both direct and indirect. There are also non-tax sources from which the government earns money. These may be revenue receipts (usually recurring in nature) such as dividends received from public sector companies, fees, fines and forfeitures or capital receipts (mostly one-time) — money got through disinvestment of public sector undertakings, recovery of loans, borrowings, and so on.

Why this huge deficit?

Just a year back when the Budget was announced, fiscal deficit was estimated at 2.5 per cent of GDP. Subsequent developments — a higher fertiliser subsidy, the farm loan waiver scheme, implementation of the Sixth Pay Commission, which hiked salaries for government employees with retrospective effect, resulted in the widening of the deficit.

Increased spending on social welfare projects which may yield no immediate monetary benefit to the government may be yet another contributor.

A steep increase in non-Plan revenue expenses and a decline in capital investments also chipped in. While expenses shot up, the last two quarters also turned the heat on the government as tax collections slowed — they contracted by 13 per cent (on year-on-year basis) in October, 15 per cent in November and 25 per cent in December.

Remedial measures

To cover the fiscal deficit, the option usually adopted is to borrow money from the market. Printing more money increases money supply which, in turn, causes inflation. It is a kind of invisible tax that reduces the value of the money you are holding.

Borrowings could be from the Reserve Bank of India or by issuing government bonds to financial institutions.

Full article is at,

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/iw/2009/02/22/stories/2009022250561400.htm

Buy and Sell Signal generated on 16th July

SELL at 794.65-------ACC
SELL at 31.65-------ASHOKLEY
SELL at 473.60-------AUROPHARMA
SELL at 169.00-------BAJAUTOFIN
SELL at 401.55-------BANKBARODA
Strong BUY at 38.45------DSKULKARNI RESISTANCE AT 48.40 upside 25.88
Strong SELL at 187.55-------DISHMAN
SELL at 387.00-------EDELWEISS
BUY at 135.80-------GODREJIND RESISTANCE AT 138.85 upside 2.25
SELL at 71.55-------IDEA
Strong SELL at 80.40-------JAGRAN
Strong BUY at 40.05------NOIDATOLL RESISTANCE AT 44.20 upside 10.36
Strong BUY at 82.05------RADICO RESISTANCE AT 86.70 upside 5.67
SELL at 159.05-------SAIL
SELL at 590.15-------STER
Strong BUY at 50.40------TVSMOTOR RESISTANCE AT 52.40 upside 3.97
STRONG BUY at 920.15------MCDOWELL-N RESISTANCE AT 1000.05 upside 8.68
SELL at 197.35-------WELGUJ
Strong BUY at 180.20------ZEEL RESISTANCE AT 195.50 upside 8.49


Total = 19
No. of Buys = 7
No. of Sells = 12

Here are the sample signals generated on 15th July.

Strong BUY at 38.50------AARTIIND RESISTANCE AT 42.00 upside 9.09
BUY at 296.35-------ADLABSFILM RESISTANCE AT 388.80 upside 31.20
BUY at 13.55-------AFTEK RESISTANCE AT 14.00 upside 3.32
Strong BUY at 76.50------ALBK RESISTANCE AT 80.90 upside 5.75
Strong BUY at 12.20------ALOKTEXT RESISTANCE AT 15.30 upside 25.41
Strong BUY at 34.55------AMTEKINDIA RESISTANCE AT 40.95 upside 18.52
Strong BUY at 101.05------ANANTRAJ RESISTANCE AT 118.70 upside 17.47
BUY at 53.80-------ANSALINFRA RESISTANCE AT 59.45 upside 10.50
Strong BUY at 541.20------APOLLOHOSP RESISTANCE AT 565.00 upside 4.40
BUY at 24.25-------ARVIND RESISTANCE AT 26.50 upside 9.28
BUY at 32.40-------BPL RESISTANCE AT 34.70 upside 7.10
BUY at 46.45-------BALAJITELE RESISTANCE AT 48.60 upside 4.63
Strong BUY at 19.25------BALLARPUR RESISTANCE AT 20.45 upside 6.23
BUY at 2187.20-------BHEL RESISTANCE AT 2219.70 upside 1.49
STRONG BUY at 670.00------BHUSANSTL RESISTANCE AT 688.00 upside 2.69
Strong BUY at 235.25------BIRLACORPN RESISTANCE AT 243.70 upside 3.59
BUY at 278.80-------CESC RESISTANCE AT 293.95 upside 5.43
BUY at 257.35-------CANBK RESISTANCE AT 261.70 upside 1.69
STRONG BUY at 255.00------CUMMINSIND RESISTANCE AT 282.00 upside 10.59
BUY at 36.70-------DSKULKARNI RESISTANCE AT 37.20 upside 1.36
STRONG BUY at 130.10------DALMIACEM RESISTANCE AT 134.00 upside 3.00
Strong BUY at 65.10------DCHL RESISTANCE AT 77.90 upside 19.66
BUY at 76.05-------DEEPAKFERT RESISTANCE AT 78.90 upside 3.75
BUY at 49.05-------DENABANK RESISTANCE AT 50.75 upside 3.47
BUY at 62.80-------DHAMPURSUG RESISTANCE AT 68.95 upside 9.79
Strong BUY at 189.55------DISHMAN RESISTANCE AT 191.80 upside 1.19
Strong BUY at 1055.20------DIVISLAB RESISTANCE AT 1184.00 upside 12.21
Strong BUY at 441.30------DREDGECORP RESISTANCE AT 652.00 upside 47.75
STRONG BUY at 73.00------DWARKESH RESISTANCE AT 85.50 upside 17.12
Strong BUY at 33.40------ELECTCAST RESISTANCE AT 34.60 upside 3.59
BUY at 124.30-------ERAINFRA RESISTANCE AT 126.50 upside 1.77
BUY at 61.35-------ESCORTS RESISTANCE AT 64.80 upside 5.62
STRONG BUY at 56.75------ESSARSHIP RESISTANCE AT 61.40 upside 8.19
Strong BUY at 69.55------EXIDEIND RESISTANCE AT 72.00 upside 3.52
Strong BUY at 1254.05------FINANTECH RESISTANCE AT 1314.00 upside 4.78
BUY at 21.25-------FSL RESISTANCE AT 22.20 upside 4.47
Strong BUY at 84.25------FORTIS RESISTANCE AT 98.75 upside 17.21
Strong BUY at 36.45------GHCL RESISTANCE AT 37.00 upside 1.51
BUY at 33.45-------GTLINFRA RESISTANCE AT 34.40 upside 2.84
Strong BUY at 94.55------GDL RESISTANCE AT 99.00 upside 4.71
Strong BUY at 94.55------GEOJIT RESISTANCE AT 99.00 upside 4.71
Strong BUY at 30.20------GEOMETRIC RESISTANCE AT 32.50 upside 7.62
BUY at 227.90-------GLENMARK RESISTANCE AT 232.40 upside 1.97
Strong BUY at 247.85------GESHIP RESISTANCE AT 267.50 upside 7.93
Strong BUY at 76.85------GMDCLTD RESISTANCE AT 81.50 upside 6.05
Strong BUY at 40.70------GUJNRECOKE RESISTANCE AT 44.75 upside 9.95
BUY at 72.80-------HARRMALAYA RESISTANCE AT 74.20 upside 1.92
BUY at 1490.40-------HEROHONDA RESISTANCE AT 1559.00 upside 4.60
BUY at 41.05-------HEXAWARE RESISTANCE AT 42.25 upside 2.92
BUY at 11.20-------HIMACHLFUT RESISTANCE AT 13.20 upside 17.86
BUY at 79.60-------HINDALCO RESISTANCE AT 84.80 upside 6.53
BUY at 614.00-------HINDZINC RESISTANCE AT 628.45 upside 2.35
BUY at 73.30-------IDEA RESISTANCE AT 75.70 upside 3.27
Strong BUY at 143.50------INDIACEM RESISTANCE AT 146.50 upside 2.09
Strong BUY at 79.05------INDIAGLYCO RESISTANCE AT 82.00 upside 3.73
BUY at 131.25-------INDIAINFO RESISTANCE AT 137.00 upside 4.38
BUY at 82.50-------IOB RESISTANCE AT 89.15 upside 8.06
BUY at 87.60-------INDUSINDBK RESISTANCE AT 90.00 upside 2.74
BUY at 42.70-------INOXLEISUR RESISTANCE AT 46.90 upside 9.84
Strong BUY at 71.55------JSL RESISTANCE AT 84.00 upside 17.40
BUY at 568.65-------JSWSTEEL RESISTANCE AT 594.90 upside 4.62
BUY at 189.85-------JAYSREETEA RESISTANCE AT 206.60 upside 8.82
Strong BUY at 375.70------JINDALSAW RESISTANCE AT 418.45 upside 11.38
Strong BUY at 51.80------KSOILS RESISTANCE AT 58.85 upside 13.61
Strong BUY at 48.10------KOHINOOR RESISTANCE AT 52.05 upside 8.21
BUY at 604.75-------KOTAKBANK RESISTANCE AT 654.90 upside 8.29
BUY at 628.15-------LICHSGFIN RESISTANCE AT 681.90 upside 8.56
Strong BUY at 77.75------LAKSHMIEFL RESISTANCE AT 83.00 upside 6.75
Strong BUY at 390.60------LITL RESISTANCE AT 0.00 upside -100.00
Strong BUY at 861.85------LUPIN RESISTANCE AT 900.00 upside 4.43
Strong BUY at 94.90------MTNL RESISTANCE AT 108.55 upside 14.38
BUY at 55.40-------MLL RESISTANCE AT 74.75 upside 34.93
BUY at 11.95-------MIRZAINT RESISTANCE AT 13.35 upside 11.72
Strong BUY at 235.30------MONNETISPA RESISTANCE AT 257.40 upside 9.39
BUY at 74.00-------MOSERBAER RESISTANCE AT 80.00 upside 8.11
Strong BUY at 351.35------NMDC RESISTANCE AT 474.40 upside 35.02
BUY at 199.00-------NTPC RESISTANCE AT 210.50 upside 5.78
BUY at 128.35-------NAGARCONST RESISTANCE AT 130.50 upside 1.68
BUY at 289.10-------NBVENTURES RESISTANCE AT 304.80 upside 5.43
BUY at 127.45-------NEYVELILIG RESISTANCE AT 132.90 upside 4.28
BUY at 36.20-------NOIDATOLL RESISTANCE AT 36.65 upside 1.24
BUY at 1039.40-------ONGC RESISTANCE AT 1049.45 upside 0.97
Strong BUY at 89.65------ORCHIDCHEM RESISTANCE AT 104.80 upside 16.90
Strong BUY at 17.90------BINDALAGRO RESISTANCE AT 18.40 upside 2.79
BUY at 110.65-------PSL RESISTANCE AT 126.25 upside 14.10
Strong BUY at 101.20------POLARIS RESISTANCE AT 109.50 upside 8.20
BUY at 79.90-------PRAJIND RESISTANCE AT 97.90 upside 22.53
STRONG BUY at 10.15------PRICOL RESISTANCE AT 11.25 upside 10.84
BUY at 662.85-------PNB RESISTANCE AT 712.00 upside 7.41
BUY at 37.75-------RAJESHEXPO RESISTANCE AT 40.70 upside 7.81
BUY at 253.85-------RANBAXY RESISTANCE AT 260.60 upside 2.66
Strong BUY at 911.50------RIIL RESISTANCE AT 1025.00 upside 12.45
BUY at 79.40-------RNRL RESISTANCE AT 87.05 upside 9.63
BUY at 164.65-------RPOWER RESISTANCE AT 180.50 upside 9.63
BUY at 117.80-------ROLTA RESISTANCE AT 134.00 upside 13.75
Strong BUY at 38.50------RUCHISOYA RESISTANCE AT 43.80 upside 13.77
Strong BUY at 177.60------RECLTD RESISTANCE AT 0.00 upside -100.00
STRONG BUY at 253.55------SKFINDIA RESISTANCE AT 0.00 upside -100.00
Strong BUY at 124.50------SCI RESISTANCE AT 134.40 upside 7.95
BUY at 426.35-------SIEMENS RESISTANCE AT 468.80 upside 9.96
STRONG BUY at 30.90------SONATSOFTW RESISTANCE AT 34.20 upside 10.68
Strong BUY at 356.60------STCINDIA RESISTANCE AT 375.05 upside 5.17
BUY at 18.70-------SUPPETRO RESISTANCE AT 21.40 upside 14.44
Strong BUY at 71.45------SYNDIBANK RESISTANCE AT 74.50 upside 4.27
STRONG BUY at 45.55------TVSMOTOR RESISTANCE AT 47.65 upside 4.61
BUY at 206.05-------TATACHEM RESISTANCE AT 227.85 upside 10.58
BUY at 1104.05-------TATAPOWER RESISTANCE AT 1144.00 upside 3.62
Strong BUY at 99.75------TV-18 RESISTANCE AT 131.00 upside 31.33
Strong BUY at 49.45------THOMASCOOK RESISTANCE AT 57.00 upside 15.27
BUY at 19.15-------TFCILTD RESISTANCE AT 21.75 upside 13.58
BUY at 73.00-------UFLEX RESISTANCE AT 75.95 upside 4.04
BUY at 149.60-------UNIPHOS RESISTANCE AT 154.70 upside 3.41
Strong BUY at 42.95------USHAMART RESISTANCE AT 43.80 upside 1.98
Strong BUY at 56.70------VARUNSHIP RESISTANCE AT 61.20 upside 7.94
BUY at 162.85-------VIDEOIND RESISTANCE AT 180.50 upside 10.84
BUY at 204.25-------WELGUJ RESISTANCE AT 219.80 upside 7.61
BUY at 127.85-------WOCKPHARMA RESISTANCE AT 130.90 upside 2.39
STRONG BUY at 288.70------ZUARIAGRO RESISTANCE AT 0.00 upside -100.00
Date 15-JUL-2009

Total = 118
No. of Buys = 118
No. of Sells = 0

I've been working on a simple program to sort the stocks based on technical indicators and volume.
The program checks the stock for given set of conditions technical indicators and generates the buy or sell signal accordingly.
The call generated is EOD data based.
Usually in trading market both buy and sell calls will be generated. Obviously, which calls to be used depend on day's trend.

This is the first version of the code, so evenif the caculations are accurate, the output is very crude.

How to use this output?

The buy calls:
The buy calls are given with approximate targets in percent.
The 'Strong Buy' is used when the volume is more than 2 times the last days volume.
The 'STRONG Buy' is used when the volume is more than 5 times the last days volume.
The upside is shown as -100% when there is no resistance nearby.(We have to check chart manually to see if there is any.)

The sell calls :
They are same as above. The target is not specified yet. I plan to add it very soon.

It's crucial to check the charts manually before taking any decision.

Nifty intraday

As we can see on 5 min chart Nifty is taking support at 3980. On the upper side resistance is around 4040 and 4080.

Today a small technical bounce is possible after a week start. But, as the down trend is still on, we try to go short above 4000 and possibly close to 4040.
I prefer to use RSI, Slow Stochastic and Fast Stochastic to confirm the entry.

EMA settings on yahoo charts !!

Watch the ema set on yahoo charts in above image.
It's interesting to see how these levels provide support and resistances in a trending market.
The page can be refreshed to see the latest nifty value.

Head and Shoulder

It appear to be head and shoulder break down for nifty.
There is some support around 4070 level and after that at 3800 level.
I think nifty should hold 4070 for intraday and might close at around 4120.
As the market is in down trend for coming few days, one should find opportunities to go short.
Let's see if it holds 4070.

Hello People !!

It's been long time since I've posted anything here.
Now that I've some free time, I'll try to post some buying and selling opportunities.
Starting from today!

So....Here we go..!!

Buy Centurion Bank, Kotak Bank

Buy Centurion Bank, Kotak Bank in banking space.

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Praj: Buying opportunity !

Around 470 Praj is a good buying opportunity. A technical bounce is expected.

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